Failure is the Safe Bet

November 27, 2007 at 10:28 am | In International Relations, Middle East | Leave a Comment

Ami Ayalon, one of the Israeli government’s resident Tough Guy/silver-lining spotters, has a good piece in the Jerusalem Post today smacking down the “motley coalition of cynics and extremists [who] were quick to write off the Annapolis peace conference as a waste of time.”  You should read it.

I want to point out, though, that while I enjoy being part of motley coalitions (or motley anything, really), I don’t count myself as part of this coalition.  I think that what is going on today in Annapolis is absolutely crucial.  I am truly hoping for some kind of success, and as I’ve argued in this blog a few times, failure could be terrible.  I just think that, from a strictly odds-making point of view, it’s always better to bet on failure in Middle East peace negotations.  It’s usually a safe bet.

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